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Being filtered out is information, not failure. This week’s scan ran ten full qualifiers through its rules — and a long line of good-looking moves got cut. Below, each name tripped exactly one rule (or in a couple of cases two), and the rule is named and bolded. The rules are the edge: they keep small caps, broken trends, and momentum-chasers out of a list built for repeatable gap-ups. Study the cuts — they’re often next week’s qualifiers.
Screen A — gap-ups that didn’t qualify
These stocks opened 3% or more above the prior close during the week but failed exactly one filter. That one filter is the whole story.
KOD — Kodiak Sciences: the +90% gap too small to qualify
The week’s most spectacular opening gap — +90.76% Monday (open $61.71 vs $32.35) on Phase 3 DAYBREAK data showing its wet-AMD drug non-inferior to Eylea — and it closed up 178% at $89.92. The catch: market cap of $5.94B. Our $10B floor exists to keep speculative small caps out of the winners list, and a biotech printing triple-digit moves on one trial readout is exactly the kind of volatility the floor filters. Failed filter: market cap below $10B.
SYNA — Synaptics: the +14.65% deal gap under the floor
Friday’s +14.65% opening gap (open $121.70 vs $106.15) was the clean reaction to Thursday’s revised all-cash merger with onsemi — $123/share, ~$5.7B, removing the dilution overhang of the old all-stock deal. Gap held; RSI 71.82; above its 200-day. Everything right except size: market cap $4.74B. Failed filter: market cap below $10B.
CCL — Carnival: the +10.16% earnings gap under the trendline
Tuesday’s +10.16% gap (open $24.39 vs $22.14) on a genuinely great quarter — record revenue $8.44B, raised full-year EPS guidance to $2.24 — closed +13.41% at $25.11. But the close sat at $25.76 against a 200-day average of $27.48. Our screen only buys gaps firing above the long-term trend; a breakout under a falling 200-day is where accounts get hurt. (It qualified on Screen B’s bounce screen instead.) Failed filter: price below 200-day SMA.
FICO — Fair Isaac: the +7.18% gap, +11.7% day, wrong trend
After crashing 26.5% Tuesday on the FHFA’s bombshell — VantageScore put on the same mortgage-pricing grid, a “bi-merge” two-bureau system floated — FICO snapped back Thursday with a +7.18% opening gap and an +11.7% close at $661.75 on FHFA’s approval of FICO’s Direct License Program. Impressive bounce, dead trend: the stock sits at $661 vs a 200-day of $1,218.66, with an RSI of 26.0 — dead last of 74 IT names. (It also qualified on Screen B.) Failed filter: price below 200-day SMA.
CTSH — Cognizant: the +7.76% sympathy gap under the trend
Thursday’s +7.76% gap (open $61.90 vs $57.44) rode Accenture’s earnings blowout across the IT-services complex. But it closed at $60.88 against a 200-day average of $60.97 — just under the line, with RSI 48.1 ranking 57th of 74 in IT. A whisker under is still under; rules are rules. Failed filter: price below 200-day SMA.
KMX — CarMax: the +6.83% earnings gap, $2B short
Tuesday’s +6.83% gap (open vs prior close) followed a monster quarter: revenue +19.5%, EPS $1.16 vs $0.73 expected (+81% YoY). Above its 200-day. Earnings strength is our Tier 1. The only problem: market cap $7.80B — about $2.2B short of the $10B floor. The cruellest cut of the week. Failed filter: market cap below $10B.
HOOD — Robinhood: the +5.50% gap in the wrong sector
Wednesday’s +5.50% gap (open $122.61 vs $116.22) came on real news: Robinhood announced 24/7 weekend stock trading (Reuters, Sep 30). Big market cap ($101.4B). But it faded to −3.2% on the day — and it doesn’t matter, because Robinhood is Financials, and Financials are permanently excluded from this scan. A gap that dies intraday in an excluded sector never had a chance. Failed filters: Financials sector exclusion; gap not held.
ARM — Arm Holdings: the +4.94% gap without the muscle
Friday’s +4.94% opening gap (open $306.775 vs $292.34) held into a +5.18% close at $307.49, riding the jobs-report chip rally — $328B market cap, far above its 200-day. But its 14-day RSI of 58.52 sat below the semiconductor peer average (~63.0). Our screen demands momentum leadership, not just momentum. Last week’s ARM gap qualified; this week’s didn’t. That’s the filter working as designed. Failed filter: RSI not above-average vs sector peers.
AMKR — Amkor Technology: the +3.76% gap under the line
Friday’s +3.76% opening gap held and extended to +5.90% at $56.02. Market cap $13.92B clears the floor — but the close was $56.02 vs a 200-day average of $57.27. One dollar and twenty-five cents under the trendline, and it’s a cut. (Its RSI of 58.85 was also under the peer average.) Failed filter: price below 200-day SMA.
IBM — IBM: the +4.92% gap under the trend
Thursday’s +4.92% gap (open $230.76 vs $219.93) on the “IBM Bob” agentic dev platform announcement faded to +2.6% at the close — and at $222.64 vs a $255.50 200-day average, the stock is deep under its long-term trend, with RSI 41.5 ranking 65th of 74 in IT. Failed filter: price below 200-day SMA.
INTU — Intuit: the +3.28% gap under the trend
Thursday’s +3.28% sympathy gap on the Accenture wave closed +2.6% at $282.78 — but the close was $281.08 vs a $393.72 200-day average. Software strength doesn’t matter when the chart is broken. Failed filter: price below 200-day SMA.
IT — Gartner: the +5.17% gap with soft momentum
Thursday’s +5.17% gap (open $196.19 vs $186.54) on Accenture read-through closed +3.3% at $192.80. Cleared the size filters ($11.7B cap, above its 200-day) — but RSI of 50.3 ranked 52nd of 74 in IT, below the sector mean of 56.6. Momentum that’s mid-pack isn’t momentum by our definition. Failed filter: RSI below sector average.
NOW — ServiceNow: the +3.76% gap with soft momentum
Same story as Gartner, same session: Thursday’s +3.76% gap (open $139.05 vs $134.01) on Accenture read-through, $138.9B cap, above its 200-day — but RSI 50.3, ranked 51st of 74 in IT, under the 56.6 sector mean. Failed filter: RSI below sector average.
NTES — NetEase: the +4.55% upgrade gap under the trend
Monday’s +4.55% gap (open $120.66 vs $115.41) on a Morgan Stanley Top Pick upgrade to Overweight ($163 target) ahead of the Ananta global launch, closed +4.88%. $75.96B market cap — but $117.21 vs a $123.02 200-day average. Good call by the analyst; wrong chart for our screen. Failed filter: price below 200-day SMA.
RCL — Royal Caribbean: the +6.02% upgrade gap under the trend
Tuesday’s +6.02% gap on dual Buy upgrades (BofA $330, Deutsche Bank $299) plus Carnival’s read-through closed +7.45% at $260.67. $74.28B market cap, RSI 60.75 — but $277.74 vs a $286.91 200-day average. (It also missed Screen B on bounce-day volume.) Failed filter: price below 200-day SMA.
STLA — Stellantis: the +3.04% gap that faded
Monday’s +3.04% gap barely cleared our floor — and then faded to +0.43% on the day, closing at $4.40 against a $7.24 200-day average. No positive catalyst identified; the tape did it, and the tape took it back. Failed filters: price below 200-day SMA; gap not held.
NVTS — Navitas Semiconductor: the +9.16% gap that vanished
Tuesday’s +9.16% opening gap faded to flat by the close. Even before the fade, the $3.26B market cap was a third of our floor. Double strike. Failed filters: market cap below $10B; gap not held.
The earnings names that fell instead
Not every earnings report makes a gap-up — this week, several large caps reported and went the other way: JBL (Jabil) beat on Q4 EPS and guided FY2027 revenue +24%, then gapped down −4.03% and closed −10.0%; MU (Micron) beat on Q4 and guided Q1 revenue to $60–63B vs ~$57B expected, and produced no gap at all; MKC (McCormick) beat and was sold off −4.9%; NKE (Nike) reported Thursday after the close (EPS beat, but FY27 guidance cut to a high-single-digit revenue decline and $1.15–$1.35 EPS vs $1.67 consensus) and gapped down ~9–10% Friday. Beats that fall are why earnings strength is a qualifying catalyst, not a guarantee.
Screen B — bounces that didn’t qualify
The oversold-bounce screen needs both halves of the setup: genuinely oversold and a hard bounce on conviction volume. These names had one half but not the other.
RCL — Royal Caribbean: the bounce with no volume
Genuinely oversold — closed Sep 28 at $242.59, ~14.4% below its 50-day SMA — and it did bounce: +7.45% on Sep 29 on Carnival’s record print. But the bounce-day volume was 1.22× average, short of the required 1.5×. Conviction without volume is just a head-fake with better PR. Failed filter: bounce-day volume below 1.5× average.
ACN — Accenture: the +15.8% bounce that wasn’t oversold
The week’s biggest single-day move — +15.78% Thursday on a Q4 revenue beat ($18.7B vs $18.04B consensus), opened +17.77%. But before the pop, RSI was 53.3 and the stock sat +3.3% above its 50-day SMA. That isn’t oversold; that’s momentum wearing an earnings costume. (It qualified on Screen A.) Failed filter: no dated oversold evidence.
CTSH — Cognizant: the +6% bounce that wasn’t oversold
+5.99% Thursday on the Accenture sympathy wave — but pre-bounce RSI was 44.4 and the stock was only −1.3% vs its 50-day average. Never oversold, so there’s nothing to mean-revert. Failed filter: no dated oversold evidence.
TSLA — Tesla: the almost-bounce on a deliveries beat
+4.65% Friday on Q3 deliveries of 486,532 (vs ~456k consensus) — so close to the 5% line, with a +1.69% opening gap that didn’t reach the 3% prong either. And pre-bounce RSI was 43.4, +2.2% above the 50-day. Missed on both halves: not oversold, not quite hard enough. Failed filters: no dated oversold evidence; bounce magnitude below 5%.
BKNG — Booking Holdings: oversold, still waiting
RSI 31.4–33.7 all week, closed Oct 1 ~15.6% below its 50-day SMA — the oversold half is checked. But the best session of the week was +0.76%. It drifted from $163.87 to $159.02 while oversold and never snapped back. Watchlist carryover from last week — still waiting. Failed filter: no hard bounce.
MCD — McDonald’s: the textbook oversold base with no bounce
RSI 24.5–26.7 all week (<30), closed Sep 30 ~11.3% below its 50-day SMA at $230.94 — the most textbook oversold large-cap base in the scan. Best session: +0.39%. Finished the week ~flat at $231.89. An oversold stock can always get more oversold; the bounce is the signal, and it never came. Failed filter: no hard bounce.
PEP — PepsiCo: oversold, drifting lower
RSI 27.4 on Sep 30, 25.4 on Oct 1 — genuinely oversold by the RSI prong. Best session: +0.23%. It drifted lower all week ($128.50 → $125.89). Third week of watchlist carryover. Failed filter: no hard bounce.
SNPS — Synopsys: the +12.8% momentum move, not a bounce
+12.78% Thursday (opened +7.55%) on the Investor Day outlook raise and the >$1B multi-year Amazon deal. Huge move — but pre-bounce RSI was 60.8 and the stock sat +7.9% above its 50-day SMA. That’s momentum, not mean reversion. (It qualified on Screen A.) Failed filter: no dated oversold evidence.
HPE — Hewlett Packard Enterprise: the +7.4% momentum move, not a bounce
+7.36% Friday on solid AI-networking guidance — among the S&P 500’s top gainers — but pre-bounce RSI was 62.1, +16.8% above the 50-day SMA. Same story as SNPS: great move, wrong screen. (It qualified on Screen A.) Failed filter: no dated oversold evidence.
NKE — Nike: sold off on earnings, no bounce
Fell −3.64% Friday to $33.87 after Thursday’s post-close report cut FY27 guidance. Pre-report RSI was 35.0 and the stock was −10.1% vs its 50-day — close to oversold, but neither prong was met, and the week’s story was the selloff itself. Failed filters: no dated oversold evidence; no hard bounce.
Watchlist for next week
The oversold names that never got their bounce are the first candidates if conviction buying arrives: MCD (the deepest textbook base, RSI <25), PEP, BKNG, GIS (RSI 23–26, ~14% below its 50-day), MKC, APP. And if KMX ever trades above a $10B market cap with another earnings-style gap, or CCL/RCL/FICO reclaim their 200-day averages, they’ll be back on the qualifiers list. That’s the thing about near-misses — they’re often just early.
The week in markets
- Weak September payrolls (Fri Oct 2): just +29K jobs vs ~84–90K expected; unemployment 4.2% vs 4.1% expected. October Fed-hike odds collapsed from ~64% a week ago to ~23–28%. The Nasdaq rose +1.2% to 27,190.86 (third straight weekly win, +0.5% on the week); the S&P 500 slipped −0.3% on the week to 7,722.72. (Investopedia · Morningstar)
- Chip-sector rally (Fri Oct 2): SOX ran +2.3–3.4% intraday to a 3-month high; NVDA hit an all-time high. The weak jobs print cooled yields, giving rate-pressure relief to high-multiple semis — TER, MTSI, ARM, MRVL and TXN all gapped up. (Investor’s Business Daily)
- Storage crash (Fri Oct 2): STX −12%, WDC −10% on reports Toshiba plans a major HDD production expansion. (STX was a Sep 25 scan qualifier — the scorecard will have words.) (Investor’s Business Daily)
- onsemi buys Synaptics for cash (Fri Oct 2): revised all-cash deal at $123/share (~$5.7B) replacing June’s all-stock ~$7B terms after a competing bid; ON +6%, SYNA +14%. (WSJ, via Oct 2 coverage)
- FHFA detonates FICO’s moat (Sep 29–Oct 2): the FHFA put VantageScore 4.0 on the same mortgage-pricing grid as FICO Classic and floated a two-bureau system — FICO crashed −26.5% Tuesday (worst day in years), rebounded +11.7% Thursday after FHFA approved FICO’s Direct License Program. (abcmoney · MarketBeat)
- Nike’s turnaround flounders (Oct 1–2): Q1 revenue miss, FY27 guidance cut (high-single-digit revenue decline, $1.15–$1.35 EPS vs $1.67 consensus), China −26%. Shares gapped down ~9–10% Friday. (Barron’s)
- Accenture lifts IT services (Oct 1): Q4 revenue $18.7B vs $18.04B consensus drove a +17.8% opening gap; Cognizant, Globant, EPAM, IBM and Gartner rode the wave. (Barchart · Trefis)
This post is for informational and educational purposes only — not financial advice. Read our full Disclaimer.
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